How well do we understand probabilities in medicine?

Asked By: Nettie Christiansen
Date created: Fri, Apr 23, 2021 3:50 AM
Best answers
What is the probability of the patient being stricken with the disease? Most doctors answered 95%. Less than one in 5 professionals answered the question correctly.
Answered By: Verda Koepp
Date created: Sat, Apr 24, 2021 5:53 AM

Health economics

Health economics
In order to determine the probability of the patient having the disease, we need to calculate the positive predictive value (PPV) which is different from sensitivity or specificity. PPV = TP/ TP+FP = 1/51 = 2%. Therefore, there is a 2% probability that the patient has a disease.
Answered By: Violet Murray
Date created: Sun, Apr 25, 2021 8:07 AM
Doctors have a pretty poor understanding of how the tests they use influence the probability of disease, and they heavily overestimate the likelihood of disease after a positive test. They are however generally better at understanding the impact of a negative test than they are at understanding the impact of a positive test.
Answered By: Stephan Lowe
Date created: Sun, Apr 25, 2021 12:55 PM
They very well consider prevalence as well as efficacy of specific tests given the presence of different risk factors in a patient (age, family history, etc). Importantly, those and many other screening guidelines are applied by primary care physicians who may not otherwise be able to calculate exacting probabilities.
Answered By: Retha Goyette
Date created: Mon, Apr 26, 2021 12:26 AM
Using the Bayes’ Theorem formula, we can calculate that the probability of the disease given a positive sign, i.e., P(D/S), is 92%. We of course do not suggest that clinicians should always make calculations of this sort when confronted with a diagnostic dilemma, but they must in an intuitive way think along these lines.
Answered By: Leonardo Parisian
Date created: Tue, Apr 27, 2021 12:01 AM
The craft of medicine requires doctors to constantly manage probabilities. Indeed, the weighing of likelihood is built into our methodology: we hear patients’ stories, list possible diagnoses, and then rank them according to probability, creating “the differential diagnosis.”
Answered By: Julie Lemke
Date created: Tue, Apr 27, 2021 11:12 AM
In medicine, a result is considered “statistically significant” if the ”p-value” is less than 0,05 (p stands for probability). This gets a little bit complicated, but please bear with me. To put it as simply as possible, the p-value is the probability that a certain result was seen even though the null hypothesis is true.
Answered By: Katheryn Larkin
Date created: Wed, Apr 28, 2021 10:32 AM
Statistics and probability theory are absolutely essential in medicine. They are used to test new drugs, and to work out the chance that patients develop side effects from the drugs. Tests are performed on large groups of animals or people and statistics is the tool needed to evaluate the tests.
Answered By: Euna Littel
Date created: Thu, Apr 29, 2021 5:24 PM
But probability is a tricky concept that not all (most?) people understand. Grace Huckins for The Open Notebook outlines useful ways to communicate the numbers more clearly — to increase the chances readers do understand. On using concrete numbers over percentages: Concrete numbers can also make statistics feel more personally relevant.
Answered By: Monica Boyle
Date created: Thu, Apr 29, 2021 9:06 PM
Formula for calculating the probability of certain outcomes for an event. In this case: Probability of a coin landing on heads. Probability of an event = (# of ways it can happen) / (total number of outcomes) P (A) = (# of ways A can happen) / (Total number of outcomes) Example 1. There are six different outcomes.
Answered By: Rita Leffler
Date created: Fri, Apr 30, 2021 12:08 AM
Probabilistic graphical model (PGM) provides a graphical representation to understand the complex relationship between a set of random variables (RVs). RVs represent the nodes and the statistical dependency between them is called an edge. An example of how a probabilistic graphical model looks like is shown above.
Answered By: Skyla Glover
Date created: Fri, Apr 30, 2021 8:28 PM
FAQ
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You can travel with your medication in both carry-on and checked baggage. It’s highly recommended you place these items in your carry-on in the event that you need immediate access. TSA does not require passengers to have medications in prescription bottles, but states have individual laws regarding the labeling of prescription medication with which passengers need to comply.
The doctor recommends Mucinex to patients as the best overall product for sore throats while relieving other symptoms that might accompany the pain. As a body expectorant, the medication works to thin out the secretion that often collects in the throat and causes inflammation and pain.
You can bring your medication in pill or solid form in unlimited amounts as long as it is screened. You can travel with your medication in both carry-on and checked baggage. It’s highly recommended you place these items in your carry-on in the event that you need immediate access.
You can travel with your medication in both carry-on and checked baggage. It’s highly recommended you place these items in your carry-on in the event that you need immediate access. TSA does not require passengers to have medications in prescription bottles, but states have individual laws regarding the labeling of prescription medication with which passengers need to comply.

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